Seven Signs Your Pipeline Looks Better Than It Is
You’ve inherited a board full of deals — built before you arrived, under different assumptions, different rigour, sometimes different people. Healthy coverage isn’t a healthy forecast. The question isn’t how many deals are in flight; it’s how many are truly qualified and belong in your forecast.
This is a quick way to pressure-test what is actually in there before your next QBR or board call.
How to use it
Pull your top 10 forecast deals — everything in Commit and Most Likely for the current quarter.
Walk through the seven signs below. For each deal, count how many signs are present. Each sign is a red flag.
Any deal scoring 4 or more is not a forecast deal — it is a hope.
Stuck deal velocity
What you see: Stage age running 1.5–2x your published cycle benchmark. The deal is “progressing” in CRM, but the close date keeps moving and the stage doesn’t.
Why it’s misleading: Reps will tell you the deal is active because something is happening — a follow-up email, a recycled demo, a call with a new junior contact. Activity is not progression. The buyer’s commitment has stalled and nobody is naming it.
The check: When was the last meeting with a qualified Champion — someone with influence, who owns the pain, and can get you to the Economic Buyer? If your rep can’t point to one in the last 30 days, the deal isn’t moving — they are.
Single-threaded Champion
What you see: One named contact. Maybe a second on the cc line. The org chart in the deal record is barely updated.
Why it’s misleading: A real Champion has four properties: power, influence, ownership of the pain, and access to the Economic Buyer. A contact missing any of those isn’t a Champion — they’re a Coach. Coaches will help you. They won’t sell internally.
The check: Ask the rep to tell you, against those four tests, why this contact is a Champion. Then: has the Champion proactively introduced the rep to anyone in the last 30 days? Can the rep name the Economic Buyer, and have they actually met them?
No documented next step
What you see: The CRM “next step” field reads “following up,” “chasing,” or “waiting on legal.” No date, no owner, no agenda.
Why it’s misleading: Without a qualification framework applied to the deal, the next action will never be clear. The rep is waiting and hoping — there’s a next step in their head, but not one the buyer has confirmed. The difference between those two states is the difference between a forecast and a wish.
The check: Is there a confirmed meeting on the calendar with the buyer, with a stated outcome? If not, there is no next step — only the hope of one.
Slipping commit dates
What you see: The close date has moved twice. Maybe three times.
Why it’s misleading: Dates don’t move because of timing. They move because the compelling event was never real, or the decision process was never mapped. A deal that has slipped twice will slip again roughly 70% of the time.
The check: What is the dated, documented business event driving the buyer to act this quarter? If the only answer is “they said end of Q2,” it is not a compelling event — it is a preference.
Compelling event without a number
What you see: “They need to consolidate vendors.” “They’re under pressure to modernise.” “Their renewal is up.” A reason to look. Not a reason to buy now.
Why it’s misleading: Pain without the negative consequence and the associated metrics doesn’t survive a CFO review. If your rep can’t tell you what doing nothing costs the buyer per month, the buyer can’t tell their board either — and the board is who decides.
The check: Can the rep answer, in one sentence, what the buyer loses by waiting another quarter? In pounds, hours, headcount, or risk.
No paper process
What you see: Late stage. Verbal yes. Nobody has talked about MSA, redlines, procurement timelines, or signature workflow.
Why it’s misleading: Procurement and Legal aren’t a formality at the end — they are a 4–8 week process at best. Deals close when the paper closes, not when the buyer says yes.
The check: Has anyone from the buyer’s Legal or Procurement team been in a meeting? Is there a redlined MSA? Does the champion understand how to procure? If the answer is no, and you’re inside 30 days of close, you are not closing this quarter.
Forecast confidence not tied to buyer evidence
What you see: The rep is “very confident.” The manager has it at Commit. You ask why — and the answer is about the rep’s relationship with the Champion, but there’s no mutual close plan, no access to the Economic Buyer, no approved business case.
Why it’s misleading: Forecast belongs in the buyer’s behaviour, not the seller’s optimism. The single best leading indicator of close is whether the buyer has done something only a buying buyer would do — signed an order form, sent procurement details, introduced you to Legal, requested a security review.
The check: What has the buyer done in the last 14 days that a non-buying buyer wouldn’t do? If you can’t answer, the deal isn’t a Commit.
Scoring your forecast
For each of your top 10 deals, count the signs present.
- 0–1 signs: Real deal. Forecast with confidence.
- 2–3 signs: Coachable. Specific gaps to close — work the deal review.
- 4 or more signs: Not a forecast deal. Move it out of Commit. Have the honest conversation now, not at month-end.
What the pattern tells you
If half your top 10 score 4 or more, you don’t have a forecast problem. You have a qualification problem. The pipeline you inherited was built without enough rigour, and the team has adapted to that standard.
The fix is not a tighter forecast call. It is:
- A common qualification language the whole team uses — MEDDPICC, or similar. Pick one, stick to it.
- Deal reviews that pressure-test against buyer evidence, not seller effort.
- A weekly operating rhythm that catches slipping deals in week two, not week ten.